Browsing by Author "Ersöz, Nur Şebnem"

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Analysis of under-five mortality by diseases in countries with different levels of development: a comparative analysis
(Prusa Medikal Yayıncılık, 2023) Sütçü, Muhammed; Güner, Pınar; Ersöz, Nur Şebnem; 0000-0002-8523-9103; 0000-0001-5979-0375; 0000-0003-3343-9936; AGÜ, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Endüstri Mühendisliği Bölümü; Sütçü, Muhammed; Güner, Pınar; Ersöz, Nur Şebnem
Objectives: The right to health is critical for children because they are sensitive beings who are more susceptible to disease and health problems. It would be beneficial to compare child mortality rates in countries with different levels of development and to conduct studies to address them by taking into account their causes. This study aims to analyze the situation of developed, developing and least developed countries in terms of causes under-5 child mortality (U5CM) determined by World Health Organization and to identify the similarities or differences of under-five mortality. Methods: Child mortality rates per 1,000 live births between 2000 and 2017 years in between different age groups (0-27 days and 1-59 months) by causes (disease-specific) were obtained from World Health Organization for a total 15 countries including developed, developing and least developed countries. Regression analysis was performed to identify which causes have more impact on child mortality. In addition, the relationship between diseases was calculated using Euclidean distance, and diseases were clustered using k-means clustering algorithm for each country. Results: As a result of mathematical and statistical analysis, it was seen that causes of child mortality have a significant relation with the development level of country where a child was born. Conclusions: It has been observed that the causes of child mortality in countries with different levels of development vary depending on different factors such as geographical conditions, air quality population and access to medicine.
COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS OF ARIMA, PROPHET AND HOLT-WINTERS FORECASTING METHODS ON EUROPEAN COVID-19 DATA
(Kerim ÇETİNKAYA, 2022) Ersöz, Nur Şebnem; Güner Şahan, Pınar; Akbas, Ayhan; Bakır Güngör, Burcu; 0000-0003-3343-9936; 0000-0001-5979-0375; 0000-0002-6425-104X; 0000-0002-2272-6270; AGÜ, Mühendislik Fakültesi, Bilgisayar Mühendisliği Bölümü; Ersöz, Nur Şebnem; Güner Şahan, Pınar; Akbas, Ayhan; Bakır Güngör, Burcu
COVID-19 is the most common infectious disease of the last few years and has caused an outbreak all around the world. The mortality rate, which was earlier in the hundreds, increased to thousands and then to millions. Since January 2020, several scientists have attempted to understand and predict the spread of COVID-19 so that governments may make sufficient arrangements in hospitals and reduce the number of deaths. This research article presents a comparative performance analysis of ARIMA, Prophet and HoltWinters Exponential Smoothing forecasting methods to make predictions for the COVID-19 disease epidemiology in Europe. The dataset has been collected from the World Health Organization (WHO) and includes the COVID-19 case data of European countries, which is categorized by WHO between the years of 2020 and 2022. The results indicate that Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing method (RMSE: 0.2080, MAE: 0.1747) outperforms ARIMA and Prophet forecasting methods.