Environmental Sustainability in Fragile States: The Role of Corruption Control, Political Stability, and Household Consumption in Somalia

Abstract

The maintenance of environmental sustainability represents a worldwide pressing issue, especially for Somalia as an emerging nation that deals with environmental degradation because of unstable political leadership combined with corruption and financial limitations. This study analyzes the impact of corruption control, political stability, and household consumption on environmental degradation in Somalia. The study employs the kernel regularized machine learning method (KRLS) and a time-varying Granger causality approach. The KRLS addresses regression and classification tasks without depending on assumptions of linearity or additivity, whereas the time-varying Granger causality fixes instabilities caused by structural breaks, regime shifts, and provides a cause-effect relationships for specific years. The empirical results of the KRLS indicate that corruption control enhances environmental quality by reducing environmental degradation, whereas household consumption impedes it. Additionally, political stability has no discernible impact on environmental degradation. The time-varying Granger causality result revealed no significant causality from corruption control to environmental degradation in the forward and rolling windows. Two episodes of Granger causalities (2009-2011 and 2013-2016) are observed from corruption control to environmental degradation, and one episode of causality (2001-2004) from political stability to environmental degradation was detected in the recursive result. Finally, four episodes of causalities (2005-2007, 2008-2011, and 2014-2015) are observed from household consumption to environmental degradation in Somalia in the recursive result. This could be justified by the fact that climate consequences-droughts and floods-inhibit livelihood sources such as livestock and agriculture. Hence, people put pressure on forests in search of alternative income sources. Nevertheless, the study delivers practical recommendations to policymakers about using governance structures and economic decisions along with institutional mechanisms for creating sustainable environmental practices.