Forecasting Türkiye’s Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (2023-2030): A Time Series Analysis Approach

Abstract

This study forecasts Türkiye's progress toward the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) from 2023 to 2030. Employing multiple time series models - exponential smoothing, Holt's linear trend, additive damped trend, ARIMA, and moving average - this research projects trajectories across all 17 SDG indices. The findings indicate a mixed outlook: significant advancements are anticipated in poverty reduction (Goal 1), health (Goal 3), and education (Goal 4). Conversely, progress is stagnating or regressing in zero hunger (Goal 2), gender equality (Goal 5), clean water (Goal 6), reduced inequalities (Goal 10), and sustainable cities (Goal 11). These results underscore the urgent need for targeted policy interventions and strategic adaptations to address deficient areas. Ultimately, utilising robust forecasting techniques provides a vital framework for continuous monitoring to ensure comprehensive sustainable development.