Scopus İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12573/395
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Conference Object Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 8Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study of Electric Utility Market in Turkey(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2015-04) Ishik, Muhammed Yasin; Göze, Tolga; Ozcan, Ihsan; Güngör, Vehbi Çağrı; Aydin, Zafer; Yasin, MuhammedWith the recent developments in energy sector, the pricing of electricity is now governed by the spot market where a variety of market mechanisms are effective. After the new legislation of market liberalization in Turkey, competition-based on hourly price has received a growing interest in the energy market, which necessitated generators and electric utility companies to add new dimensions to their scope of operation: short-term load and price forecasting. The field has several opportunities though not free from challenges. The dynamic behavior of the market price has caused the electric load to become variable and non-stationary. Furthermore, the number of nodes, in which the load must be predicted, is not constant anymore and can no longer be estimated by experts alone. In this competitive scenario, statistical forecasting methods that can automatically and accurately process thousands of data samples are essential. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the importance of short-term load forecasting, how it has received a growing interest in Turkey and to propose an artificial neural network that can forecast the short term electricity load. Through detailed performance evaluations, we demonstrate that our forecasting method is capable of predicting the hourly load accurately. © 2017 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Conference Object Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 10PI-Controlled ANN-Based Energy Consumption Forecasting for Smart Grids(SciTePress, 2015) Gezer, Gülsüm; Tuna, Gürkan; Κogias, DImitrios G.; Gülez, Kayhan; Güngör, Vehbi Çağrı; Kogias, DimitrisAlthough Smart Grid (SG) transformation brings many advantages to electric utilities, the longstanding challenge for all them is to supply electricity at the lowest cost. In addition, currently, the electric utilities must comply with new expectations for their operations, and address new challenges such as energy efficiency regulations and guidelines, possibility of economic recessions, volatility of fuel prices, new user profiles and demands of regulators. In order to meet all these emerging economic and regulatory realities, the electric utilities operating SGs must be able to determine and meet load, implement new technologies that can effect energy sales and interact with their customers for their purchases of electricity. In this respect, load forecasting which has traditionally been done mostly at city or country level can address such issues vital to the electric utilities. In this paper, an artificial neural network based energy consumption forecasting system is proposed and the efficiency of the proposed system is shown with the results of a set of simulation studies. The proposed system can provide valuable inputs to smart grid applications. © 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Conference Object Linear Vs. Non-Linear Embedding Methods in Recommendation Systems(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2022-09-07) Gurler, Kerem; Cos¸kun, Mustafa; Karagenc, Safak; Orun, Gokhan; Kuleli Pak, Burcu Kuleli; Güngör, Vehbi Çağrı; Coskun, Mustafa; Pak, Burcu KuleliPredicting customer interest in items is very crucial in direct marketing as it can potentially boost sales. Data mining techniques are developed to predict which items a particular user might be interested in based on their purchase history or explicit feedback in form of ratings or comments. Recently, non-linear and linear methods have been developed for this purpose. In this study, we applied Neighborhood based Collaborative Filtering (CF), Matrix Factorization (MF), Singular Value Decomposition (SVD), Neural Graph CF (NGCF) and Light Graph Convolutional Network (LightGCN) on explicit user product rating data which is acquired from the online gaming and mobile entertainment platform called HADI. We compared the results of node embedding methods in terms of Precision@k, Recall@k and NDCG@k values. SVD and LightGCN showed the best test performance and SVD was significantly superior to LightGCN in terms of training speed. To further increase predictive performance of SVD, we have applied classification with Logistic Regression and Deep Random Forest on user and item embeddings created by the SVD. © 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Conference Object Citation - Scopus: 22Assessing Employee Attrition Using Classifications Algorithms(Association for Computing Machinery, 2020-05-15) Ozdemir, Fatma; Cos¸kun, Mustafa; Gezer, Cengiz; Güngör, Vehbi Çağrı; Coskun, Mustafa; Cagri Gungor, V.Employees leave an organization when other organizations offer better opportunities than their current organizations. Continuity and sustenance and even completion of jobs are crucial issues for the companies not to suffer financial losses. Especially if the talented employees, who are at critical positions in the companies, leave the job, it becomes difficult for the organizations to maintain their businesses. Today, organizations would like to predict attrition of their employees and plan and prepare for it. However, the HR departments of organizations are not advanced enough to make such predictions in a handcrafted manner. For this reason, organizations are looking for new systems or methods that automatize the prediction of employee attrition utilizing data mining methods. In this study, we use IBM HR data set and apply different classification methods, such as Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest, J48, LogitBoost, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Naive Bayes, Bagging, AdaBoost, Logistic Regression, to predict the employee attrition. Different from exiting studies, we systematically evaluate our findings with various classification metrics, such as F-measure, Area Under Curve, accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. We observe that data mining methods can be useful for predicting the employee attrition. © 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Conference Object Citation - Scopus: 1Man-Hour Prediction for Complex Industrial Products(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2023) Unal, Ahmet Emin; Boyar, Halit; Kuleli Pak, Burcu Kuleli; Cem Yildiz, Mehmet; Erten, Ali Erman; Güngör, Vehbi Çağrı; Pak, Burcu Kuleli; Cagri Gungor, VehbiAccurately predicting the cost is crucial for the success of complex industrial projects. There can be several sources contributing to the cost. Traditional methods for cost estimation may not provide the required accuracy and speed to ensure the success of the project. Recently, machine learning techniques have shown promising results in improving cost estimation in various industrial products. This study investigates the performance of gradient-boosting machine learning models and feature engineering techniques on a private dataset of metal sheet project man-hour costs. A comparison of distinct models is conducted, key aspects influencing cost are identified, and the implications of incorporating domain-specific knowledge, including its advantages and disadvantages, are assessed based on performance outcomes. Experimental results demonstrate that LightGBM and XGBoost outperform other models, and feature selection and synthetic data generation techniques improve the performance. Overall, this study highlights the potential of machine learning in metal sheet sampling projects and emphasizes the importance of feature engineering and domain expertise for better model performance. © 2024 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.