WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12573/394

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Subject: search.filters.subject.ForecastingWoS Q: search.filters.wosQuartile.Q3

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  • Article
    Forecasting the Consumer Price Index in Türkiye Using Machine Learning Models: A Comparative Analysis
    (Gazi Univ, 2025-09-01) Söylemez, İsmet; Ünlü, Ramazan; Nalici, Mehmet Eren
    This study utilizes machine learning models to forecast Türkiye's Consumer Price Index (CPI), thereby addressing a critical gap in inflation prediction methodologies. The central research problem involves the forecasting of CPI in a volatile economic environment, which is essential for informed policymaking. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of three machine learning models, such as Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), in forecasting CPI over periods ranging from one to six months, utilizing data from 2012 to 2024. The study's unique contribution lies in the application of the \"SelectKBest\" method, which identifies the most relevant indices, thereby enhancing the efficiency of the models. An ensemble method, Averaging Voting, is also employed to combine the strengths of these models, producing more accurate and robust predictions. The findings indicate that while the RF model consistently generates the most accurate forecasts across all shifts, the SVM model demonstrates a particular strength in the domain of short-term predictions. The ensemble model demonstrates a substantial performance improvement, with a R2 value of 0.962 for one-month ahead of estimates and 0.956 for five-month forecasts. This combined approach has been shown to outperform individual models, offering a more reliable framework for CPI forecasting. The findings offer valuable insights for economic policymakers, enabling more precise and stable inflation predictions in Türkiye.
  • Article
    AI-Enhanced PV Power Forecasting Using Cloud Thickness and Motion in Kayseri, Türkiye
    (Wiley, 2025-01) Yavuz, Levent; Onen, Ahmet; Awad, Ahmed; Ahshan, Razzaqul; Al-Badi, Abdullah
    The incorporation of renewable energy in photovoltaic (PV) systems has made significant progress. The inherent intermittency nature of PV generation, nevertheless poses an obstacle to accurate energy forecasting. Historical PV production plus meteorological data such as temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure are largely utilized in present methods of forecasting. However, cloud thickness and dynamics-integrated system, has not been investigated and tested in real-world examples yet.This research seeks to fill this gap in research through the development of a new AI-based PV forecasting model that incorporates cloud thickness, cloud motion, and solar position into the forecasting model. Cloud properties and their impact on solar radiation are computed through a deep learning-based panel-shadowing model. For cloud movement forecasting, a gated recurrent unit (GRU) is used, while multiple convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are used for estimating cloud thickness. These outcomes are then integrated with measurements from environmental sensors to improve the accuracy of the predictions.The system was implemented and tested at Abdullah G & uuml;l University and exhibited a remarkable improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to current models. The results prove that cloud motion and thickness improve the accuracy of PV predictions, which is important for energy market stability and power grid operations.