WoS İndeksli Yayınlar Koleksiyonu
Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12573/394
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Article Citation - Scopus: 1Machine Learning and Scenario-Based Forecasting of Türkiye’s Renewable Energy Transition toward Net-Zero 2053(Elsevier Ltd, 2026-05) Sutcu, Muhammed; Yildiz, Baris; Sahin, Nurettin; Almomany, Abedalmuhdi; Gulbahar, Ibrahim TumayThe issue of global warming has been identified as one of the most critical challenges of the 21st century, with the consumption of fossil fuels being identified as a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions. In response to these challenges, countries worldwide are expediting their transition towards renewable energy sources to meet international climate commitments, such as the Paris Agreement, and to achieve long-term sustainability goals. Türkiye has established a target to achieve net-zero emissions by 2053. This objective is consistent with both the nation's domestic energy strategy and its international commitments. Nevertheless, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources is impeded by geographical, economic, and technological constraints. The present study aims to assess the capacity and efficiency of renewable energy in Türkiye with environmental protocols and future electricity demand projections. Electricity generation, transmission data, and national energy plans are used to identify future electricity generation and capacity trends. In the context of this study, a range of machine learning models is executed across diverse scenarios, yielding a series of outcomes. Consequently, the repercussions of regulatory measures and financial investments were examined, and prospective inferences were derived. The findings underscore the pivotal role of scenario-based modeling in formulating sustainable energy policies and directing investment decisions within the context of climate change mitigation.Article Forecasting the Consumer Price Index in Türkiye Using Machine Learning Models: A Comparative Analysis(Gazi Univ, 2025-09-01) Söylemez, İsmet; Ünlü, Ramazan; Nalici, Mehmet ErenThis study utilizes machine learning models to forecast Türkiye's Consumer Price Index (CPI), thereby addressing a critical gap in inflation prediction methodologies. The central research problem involves the forecasting of CPI in a volatile economic environment, which is essential for informed policymaking. The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of three machine learning models, such as Decision Tree (DT), Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), in forecasting CPI over periods ranging from one to six months, utilizing data from 2012 to 2024. The study's unique contribution lies in the application of the \"SelectKBest\" method, which identifies the most relevant indices, thereby enhancing the efficiency of the models. An ensemble method, Averaging Voting, is also employed to combine the strengths of these models, producing more accurate and robust predictions. The findings indicate that while the RF model consistently generates the most accurate forecasts across all shifts, the SVM model demonstrates a particular strength in the domain of short-term predictions. The ensemble model demonstrates a substantial performance improvement, with a R2 value of 0.962 for one-month ahead of estimates and 0.956 for five-month forecasts. This combined approach has been shown to outperform individual models, offering a more reliable framework for CPI forecasting. The findings offer valuable insights for economic policymakers, enabling more precise and stable inflation predictions in Türkiye.Conference Object Citation - WoS: 1Citation - Scopus: 8Short Term Electricity Load Forecasting: A Case Study of Electric Utility Market in Turkey(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2015-04) Ishik, Muhammed Yasin; Göze, Tolga; Ozcan, Ihsan; Güngör, Vehbi Çağrı; Aydin, Zafer; Yasin, MuhammedWith the recent developments in energy sector, the pricing of electricity is now governed by the spot market where a variety of market mechanisms are effective. After the new legislation of market liberalization in Turkey, competition-based on hourly price has received a growing interest in the energy market, which necessitated generators and electric utility companies to add new dimensions to their scope of operation: short-term load and price forecasting. The field has several opportunities though not free from challenges. The dynamic behavior of the market price has caused the electric load to become variable and non-stationary. Furthermore, the number of nodes, in which the load must be predicted, is not constant anymore and can no longer be estimated by experts alone. In this competitive scenario, statistical forecasting methods that can automatically and accurately process thousands of data samples are essential. The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the importance of short-term load forecasting, how it has received a growing interest in Turkey and to propose an artificial neural network that can forecast the short term electricity load. Through detailed performance evaluations, we demonstrate that our forecasting method is capable of predicting the hourly load accurately. © 2017 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Conference Object Citation - WoS: 7Citation - Scopus: 10PI-Controlled ANN-Based Energy Consumption Forecasting for Smart Grids(SciTePress, 2015) Gezer, Gülsüm; Tuna, Gürkan; Κogias, DImitrios G.; Gülez, Kayhan; Güngör, Vehbi Çağrı; Kogias, DimitrisAlthough Smart Grid (SG) transformation brings many advantages to electric utilities, the longstanding challenge for all them is to supply electricity at the lowest cost. In addition, currently, the electric utilities must comply with new expectations for their operations, and address new challenges such as energy efficiency regulations and guidelines, possibility of economic recessions, volatility of fuel prices, new user profiles and demands of regulators. In order to meet all these emerging economic and regulatory realities, the electric utilities operating SGs must be able to determine and meet load, implement new technologies that can effect energy sales and interact with their customers for their purchases of electricity. In this respect, load forecasting which has traditionally been done mostly at city or country level can address such issues vital to the electric utilities. In this paper, an artificial neural network based energy consumption forecasting system is proposed and the efficiency of the proposed system is shown with the results of a set of simulation studies. The proposed system can provide valuable inputs to smart grid applications. © 2022 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Conference Object Citation - WoS: 16Citation - Scopus: 20Machine Learning Analysis of Inflammatory Bowel Disease-Associated Metagenomics Dataset(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2018-09) Hacilar, Hilal; Nalbantoĝlu, Özkan Ufuk; Bakir-Güngör, BurcuThere is an ongoing interplay between humans and our microbial communities. The microorganisms living in our gut produce energy from our food, strengthen our immune system, break down foreign products, and release metabolites and hormones, which are significant for regulating our physiology. The shifts away from this 'healthy' gut microbiome is considered to be associated with many diseases. Inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) including Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, are gut related disorders affecting the intestinal tract. Although some metagenomics studies are conducted on IBD recently, our current understanding of the precise relationships between the human gut microbiome and IBD remains limited. In this regard, the use of state-of-the art machine learning approaches became popular to address a variety of questions like early diagnosis of certain diseases using human microbiota. In this study, we investigate which subset of gut microbiota are mostly associated with IBD and if disease-associated biomarkers can be detected via applying state-of-the art machine learning algorithms and proper feature selection methods. © 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Article Impact of Input Sequence Types on Healthcare Intrusion Prediction Models(IEEE-Inst Electrical Electronics Engineers Inc, 2025) Yusof, Mohammad Hafiz Mohd; Balfaqih, Mohammed; Khan, Md Munir Hayet; Almohammedi, Akram A.; Balfagih, ZainPrediction models are vital for sensing zero-day and even n-day cyberattacks, particularly in healthcare infrastructure. Most existing research focuses on developing classifiers also known as IDS to enhance detection and accuracy. However, predictive intrusion models for healthcare remain underexplored, with limited studies investigating the comparative performance of univariate and multivariate inputs against single-step and multi-step outputs in time series models. This study aims to address these gaps by evaluating the accuracy and error performance of selected predictive models across various input and output configurations. The methodology involves transforming input data sequences into univariate l* n and multivariate m * n formats, establishing single-step and multi-step splitting functions, and evaluating these configurations using the benchmark CIRA-CIC-DoHBrw-2020 dataset. Algorithms including Bidirectional LSTM, Stacked LSTM, Vanilla LSTM, Transformer Encoder-Decoder, Vector Output LSTM (GRU core), and CNN were applied, with results visualized to assess performance. The findings reveal that the Multivariate LSTM model, when trained on a sequence of multivariate inputs, demonstrates superior predictive performance, achieving low MAE error rates of 0.4% for single-step predictions and 0.1% for multi-step predictions. Additionally, GRU and Transformer models exhibit heightened sensitivity to specific input sequence configurations. In conclusion, our study demonstrates that Transformer Encoder-Decoder based prediction models exhibit exceptional prediction performance. This effectiveness is attributed to their ability to capture contextual and critical information from input sequences. These findings provide valuable insights for designing advanced intrusion prediction models, paving the way for improved prediction capabilities in future systems.Article AI-Enhanced PV Power Forecasting Using Cloud Thickness and Motion in Kayseri, Türkiye(Wiley, 2025-01) Yavuz, Levent; Onen, Ahmet; Awad, Ahmed; Ahshan, Razzaqul; Al-Badi, AbdullahThe incorporation of renewable energy in photovoltaic (PV) systems has made significant progress. The inherent intermittency nature of PV generation, nevertheless poses an obstacle to accurate energy forecasting. Historical PV production plus meteorological data such as temperature, humidity, and atmospheric pressure are largely utilized in present methods of forecasting. However, cloud thickness and dynamics-integrated system, has not been investigated and tested in real-world examples yet.This research seeks to fill this gap in research through the development of a new AI-based PV forecasting model that incorporates cloud thickness, cloud motion, and solar position into the forecasting model. Cloud properties and their impact on solar radiation are computed through a deep learning-based panel-shadowing model. For cloud movement forecasting, a gated recurrent unit (GRU) is used, while multiple convolutional neural networks (CNNs) are used for estimating cloud thickness. These outcomes are then integrated with measurements from environmental sensors to improve the accuracy of the predictions.The system was implemented and tested at Abdullah G & uuml;l University and exhibited a remarkable improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to current models. The results prove that cloud motion and thickness improve the accuracy of PV predictions, which is important for energy market stability and power grid operations.Conference Object Citation - Scopus: 1Protein İkincil Yapı Tahmini için NR ve UniClust Veri Tabanlarının Karşılaştırılması(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2018-05) Aydin, Zafer; Kaynar, Oǧuz; Görmez, YasinThree-dimensional structure prediction is one of the important problems in bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry. One of the most important steps in the three-dimensional structure prediction is the estimation of secondary structure. Improving the accuracy rate in protein secondary structure prediction depends on computed attributes as well as the classification algorithms. In multiple alignment methods, which are often used to extract an attribute, the calculated values differ according to the database used for the alignment. For this reason, it is important to use a suitable database against which the target proteins are aligned to compute profile feature vectors. In this study, 5 different datasets are generated for the CB513 benchmark with the aid of two different alignment methods and three different databases. The profile features are fed as input to a two-stage hybrid classifier. According to the experimental results, the highest accuracy rate is obtained when UniClust database is used at the first stage of HHBlits alignment to calculate PSSM values and NR database is used at the first stage of HHBlits alignment to calculate structural profile matrices. © 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.Conference Object Citation - Scopus: 3Protein İkincil Yapı Tahmini Için Makine Öǧrenmesi Yöntemlerinin Karşılaştırılması(Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc., 2018-05) Aydin, Zafer; Kaynar, Oǧuz; Görmez, Yasin; Işik, Yunus EmreThree-dimensional structure prediction is one of the important problems in bioinformatics and theoretical chemistry. One of the most important steps in the three-dimensional structure prediction is the estimation of secondary structure. Due to rapidly growing databases and recent feature extraction methods datasets used for predicting secondary structure can potentially contain a large number of samples and dimensions. For this reason, it is important to use algorithms that are fast and accurate. In this study, various classification algorithms have been optimized for the second phase of a two-stage classifier on EVAset benchmark both in the original input space and in the space reduced using the information gain metric. The most accurate classifier is obtained as the support vector machine while the extreme learning machine is significantly faster in model training. © 2018 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.