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Resilience and Market Diversification in Sustainable Tourism: Evidence from International Arrivals to Türkiye (2012-2025)
(Emerald Group Publishing Ltd, 2026-02-02) Atay, Mehmet Tarik; Ciuffreda, Raffaela; Coskun, Safa Bozkurt
PurposeThis study analyzes the possible connections between resilience and market diversification of inbound tourism to T & uuml;rkiye from 2012 to 2025. The aim is to assess the reaction of international arrivals to global fluctuations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic era, and to examine the structural linkage to primary source markets within the concept of sustainable tourism management.Design/methodology/approachThe research uses annual country-specific data related to international arrivals. We used time-series analysis to uncover long-term behaviors and the consequences of crises. The research also used Shannon entropy and the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index to look at market concentration and diversity. A comparative analysis of the primary source countries indicates variations in recovery trajectories and resilience in the concept of sustainable tourism management.FindingsThe results show that T & uuml;rkiye's inbound tourism grew steadily until 2019, decreased severely during the pandemic and then bounced back strongly from 2022 to 2024. Market diversity has improved over time, but dependence on Germany and the Russian Federation tourists' activities is still high. Although the UK was more stable, and regional markets like Bulgaria and Iran were more unstable, their positive effect on achieving the sustainable tourism goal is still weak.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is constrained by the partial coverage of 2025 data and the lack of direct indicators for environmental or social sustainability. Future research may combine these dimensions and their data to construct a more thorough and detailed evaluation for better understanding of the sustainable tourism context.Practical implicationsThe results show that for tourism in T & uuml;rkiye to be sustainable, it needs to have more diverse source markets, be better prepared for global or local crises and have plans for managing capacity, especially tourism management and seasonality. These insights can help government policymakers and local destination management bodies make long-term sustainability stronger.Social implicationsHighly concentrated tourism markets may cause revenue and employment volatility when principal source countries experience a downturn. Advocating for diversity in terms of various source markets for inbound tourism activities enhances tourism-related economic and social resilience and community welfare in terms of stable income flow and fosters inclusive growth throughout the local and national community in accordance with sustainable tourism objectives.Originality/valueThis study directly connects resilience and diversity to the management of sustainable tourism in a new destination. By integrating long-term real case data with related, respected and detailed market structure metrics, it offers novel insights into how destinations might improve their competitiveness, decreased vulnerabilities in crisis time periods and improve the sustainability of the tourism sector.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 2
Interpolated Variational Iteration Method for Solving the Jamming Transition Problem
(Elsevier, 2019-12) Coskun, Safa Bozkurt; Atay, Mehmet Tarik; Senturk, Erman
The purpose of this study is to present an analytical based numerical solution for Jamming Transition Problem (JTP) using Interpolated Variational Iteration Method (IVIM). The method eliminates the difficulties on analytical integration of expressions in analytical variational iteration technique and provides numerical results with analytical accuracy. JTP may be transformed into a nonlinear non-conservative oscillator by Lorenz system in which jamming transition is presented as spontaneous deviations of headway and velocity caused by the acceleration/breaking rate to be higher than the critical value. The resulting governing equation of JTP has no exact solution due to existing nonlinearities in the equation. The problem was previously attempted to be solved semi-analytically via analytical approximation methods including analytical variational iteration technique. The results of this study show that IVIM solutions agree very well with the numerical solution provided by the mathematical software. IVIM with two different formulation according to governing equation is introduced. Required order of the solution and number of time steps for a good agreement is determined according to the analyses performed using IVIM. (C) 2019 International Association for Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (IMACS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 2
A Semi-Analytic Method for Solving Singularly Perturbed Twin-Layer Problems With a Turning Point
(Vilnius Gediminas Tech Univ, 2023-01-19) Cengizci, Suleyman; Kumar, Devendra; Atay, Mehmet Tarik
This computational study investigates a class of singularly perturbed second-order boundary-value problems having dual (twin) boundary layers and simple turning points. It is well-known that the classical discretization methods fail to resolve sharp gradients arising in solving singularly perturbed differential equations as the perturbation (diffusion) parameter decreases, i.e., epsilon -> 0(+). To this end, this paper proposes a semi-analytic hybrid method consisting of a numerical procedure based on finite differences and an asymptotic method called the Successive Complementary Expansion Method (SCEM) to approximate the solution of such problems. Two numerical experiments are provided to demonstrate the method's implementation and to evaluate its computational performance. Several comparisons with the numerical results existing in the literature are also made. The numerical observations reveal that the hybrid method leads to good solution profiles and achieves this in only a few iterations.

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