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An analysis of impacts of economic uncertainty and covid 19 outbreak on the labor force of Turkey by education level: Svar approach
(Abdullah Gül Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimleri Enstitüsü, 2022) Kılıç, Edanur; AGÜ, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Veri Bilimi Anabilim Dalı
The economic downturns affect the fluctuations in the labor force participation rate. The pandemic brings about many changes in different areas and the labor force participation rate is one of them. This study analyses the impact of economic uncertainty innovations on the labor force participation rate in Turkey for the period January 2011 to November 2019. We also consider different educational attainment, which consists of five categories, because finding a job gets hard in recent years and there is no academic study on whether education level matters or not in Turkey. We obtain an economic uncertainty index to analyze the effect of Covid-19 and generate multivariate models (SVAR) to determine the relationship between uncertainty and labor force participation rate. We examine labor force statistics at different educational attainment levels to understand whether there are any changes or not. Thus, the main research question is that “How is the impact of uncertainty shocks on labor force participation rate in different levels of education in Turkey?”. The results show that the labor force participation rate decreases, while the unemployment rate increases in such an economic downturn.