Browsing by Author "Ustaoğlu, Eda"

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Estimation of Demand for Urban Land Uses: A Case Study of Türkiye
(Kent Akademisi (Online), 2024) Ustaoğlu, Eda; 0000-0001-6874-5162; AGÜ, Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, Ekonomi Bölümü; Ustaoğlu, Eda
Over the past few decades, urbanisation has rapidly developed in various locations. While the urban landscape has changed dramatically as a result of rapid urbanisation, academics have also noted an increase in congestion, pollution in metropolitan areas, a reduction in public services, and aging infrastructure. These indicate that land use change can have adverse impact on society and environment and therefore it puts enormous pressure on governments. To be sustainable, the resources that can be used for development must be identified, together with their restrictions, as well as the natural elements and constraints that must be maintained or sustained for the correct functioning of ecosystems. Therefore, accurate estimates of future urban expansion are essential for sustainable growth and the preservation of the environment. While the UN advice utilising the SDG indicator 11.3.1 “the ratio of land consumption rate to population growth rate” to estimate and predict the sustainability of urbanisation, there are still insufficient accurate projections and useful evaluations available at the city level, particularly with regard to future urban expansion. The main obstacle to informing the realisation of urban sustainable development goals under the framework of SDGs has been the limited understanding of the dynamics of the urbanisation sustainability in the next decades. This article examines the land use changes for urban uses, and further applies different methods for the projection of residential and industrial/commercial land uses in the selected case study area i.e. NUTS3 (nomenclature of terrestrial units for statistics) regions of Turkey which demonstrate a city level analysis. Density measures, trend extrapolation and regression analysis are the subject statistical methods used for projecting the land use. The findings show that using the chosen methodologies to project past changes leads in significant uncertainty. Linear regression estimated the highest residential land use values for east, north and west; density measure estimated the highest values for north-west and south regions. Regarding the industrial/commercial land use demand, highest values were projected by linear regression method for east and north, by linear trend extrapolation method for north-west, south, and west regions. The results are significantly influenced by the variation in selected variables, and spatial organization of the study region. Therefore, validation analysis as a future research focus will be essential to select the most appropriate model that can be used to project the land use changes in Turkey. The results from the current analysis can be adopted by the government and local authorities for the land management and sustainable growth of urban land use in the Turkish regional context.
Estimation of economic costs of air pollution from road vehicle transportation in Turkey
(Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi, 2024) Ustaoğlu, Eda; 0000-0001-6874-5162; AGÜ, Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, Ekonomi Bölümü; Ustaoğlu, Eda
Valuation of the economic, social and environmental impacts of air pollution has become crucial for the benefit-cost analysis of pollution restriction strategies, which serve as a foundation for establishing priorities for action. This paper focuses on the estimation of total external costs caused by road transport-related air pollutants using an integrated evaluation methodology combining air quality modelling, engineering science and economics. Emission factors and transport network characteristics were used to compute emissions from the road transport that is followed by economic valuation approaches adopted from international case studies and used for calculating the economic costs of air pollution in Türkiye. The results showed that total external costs of air pollution in Türkiye in 2018 ranged between 37,500 euros which is computed for CO emissions and 2,686 million euros computed as an upper limit for NOx emissions. Regarding the social costs of CO2 emissions, the values range between 31 million euro and 1,427 million euro, the former represents the low value estimate while the latter is the high value estimate. The findings indicate that the impact of emissions from road transport on environment and society can be substantial in Türkiye. Therefore, some regulations are necessary to reduce transport emissions and to sustain socio-economic welfare.
Institutional Settings and Effects on Agricultural Land Conversion: A Global and Spatial Analysis of European Regions
(MDPI, 2023) Ustaoglu, Eda; Williams, Brendan; 0000-0001-6874-5162; AGÜ, Yönetim Bilimleri Fakültesi, Ekonomi Bölümü; Ustaoğlu, Eda
Spatial planning systems and institutions have a significant role in managing non-agricultural land growth in Europe and the assessment of how their implementation impacts on agricultural land consumption is of great significance for policy and institutional improvement. Reducing the area of agricultural land taken for urban development, or eliminating such conversion, is an international policy priority aiming to maintain the amount and quality of land resources currently available for food production and sustainable development. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of land use planning systems and institutional settings on urban conversion of agricultural land in the 265 NUTS2 level EU27 and UK regions. Taking these regions as the unit of our analysis, the research developed and used global and local econometrics models to estimate the effect based on socio-economic, institutional and land use data for the 2000-2018 period. There is limited research focusing on the impacts of institutional settings and planning types of the European countries on the conversion of agricultural land. Furthermore, existing research has not considered the spatial relationships with the determinants of agricultural land conversion and the response variable, therefore, our research aimed to contribute to the literature on the subject. The results showed that the types of spatial planning systems and institution variables significantly impact the conversion of agricultural land to urban uses. Socio-economic indicators and areas of agricultural and urban land have significant impact on agricultural land conversion for any type of spatial planning system. A further result was that decentralization and political fragmentation were positively associated with agricultural land conversion while quality of regional government and governance was negatively associated. A local regression model was assessed to explore the different spatial patterns of the relationships driving agricultural land conversion. The main empirical finding from this model was that there was spatial variation of driving factors of agricultural land conversion in Europe.