Browsing by Author "Unlu, Ramazan"

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Comparative Analysis of Material Footprints in Electricity Generation of Deep Learning-Based Prediction Model and Energy Development Scenarios
(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2026) Celik, Yasin; Unlu, Ramazan; Algorabi, Omer; Kocakaya, Mustafa Nabi; Aktog, Mehmet Arif; Namli, Ersin
Escalating global production and consumption are driving rapid growth in energy demand, increasing pressure on finite natural resources. In response, this study proposes a data-driven framework that integrates deep learning-based electricity demand forecasting with economy-wide input-output material footprint analysis to support long-term energy planning and policymaking. The innovative aspect of this framework is its ability to jointly assess future electricity generation and related material requirements within a single analytical structure. A comparative analysis is conducted for Türkiye, Germany, and Spain, evaluating the material footprint of electricity generation across renewable and fossil-based energy sources under business-as-usual (BAU) and alternative energy development scenarios. The forecasting models demonstrate strong predictive performance, achieving Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 1.39% for Türkiye, 4.39% for Germany, and 3.90% for Spain, significantly outperforming conventional statistical methods. Scenario-based results indicate that sustainability-oriented pathways (ST and GCA) can reduce material requirements by approximately 20-30% compared to the BAU scenario, particularly for metal-intensive inputs such as iron and refined oil. The findings underscore the importance of integrating material footprint considerations into energy transition strategies and provide practical insights for policymakers seeking to balance energy security with resource sustainability. The study highlights the value of integrated analytical approaches in supporting more resilient and resource-efficient energy systems.
Fluctuations in the European Housing Market: Forecasting the House Price Index Change with Time-Series Models
(Gazi Univ, 2025) Soylemez, Ismet; Nalici, Mehmet Eren; Unlu, Ramazan
This study presents a comparative analysis of a time series models for forecasting changes in the Housing Price Index (HPI) in 27 European countries. Accurate HPI forecasting is essential for the development of effective policies and investment strategies. The study uses quarterly data from Q4 2013 to Q3 2024. Methodologically, the stationarity of the data is tested using the Dickey-Fuller test and differencing is applied to non-stationary series. The ARIMA, Holt Linear Trend, Additive Damped Trend and Exponential Smoothing models are evaluated based on the lowest mean squared error (MSE) value for each country. The findings confirmed the heterogeneous structure of the European housing market, showing that no single model is suitable for all countries. The ARIMA model provided the most accurate results for nine countries, while the Holt Linear Trend and Additive Damped Trend models performed best in seven countries each. Forecasts for the period 2025-2026 are generated based on these results. This study highlights the importance of adopting country-specific and adaptable forecasting approaches to accommodate the varying dynamics of European housing markets.
High-Accuracy Identification of Durian Leaf Diseases: A Convolutional Neural Network Approach Validated with K-Fold Cross-Validation and Bayesian Optimization
(Springer, 2025) Soylemez, Ismet; Nalici, Mehmet Eren; Unlu, Ramazan
To address the economic losses caused by plant diseases in durian farming, this study presents an optimized deep learning model that diagnoses diseases from leaf images with high accuracy. The model's performance is maximized through Bayesian optimization and hyperparameter tuning, while its reliability is maximized through layered five-fold cross-validation. Training the convolutional neural network model on 2595 leaf images displaying six different states (five diseased and one healthy) resulted in an average test accuracy of 91.98%. This high, consistent success rate demonstrates the model's generalizability to different datasets without overfitting. While the 'Healthy' and 'Algal' classes were successfully detected with high F1-scores, there are difficulties distinguishing between the 'Blight' and 'Colletotrichum' classes due to visual similarities. This study establishes a new reference point for durian disease classification and makes a significant contribution to the development of reliable artificial intelligence-based diagnostic tools for precision agriculture.
Machine Learning for V2X-Enabled Microgrids: A Bibliometric and Thematic Review of Intelligent Energy Management Applications
(Springer Heidelberg, 2026) Dogan, Yasemin; Unlu, Ramazan
Modern power systems are evolving due to convergence of electric mobility, artificial intelligence, and renewable energy integration. Electric vehicles serve as dynamic, mobile energy storage units playing a vital role in ensuring resilient microgrid operations, via vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technology. However, despite the rise of machine learning (ML) in energy management, much of the existing literature remains fragmented lacking a holistic perspective across all facets of V2X-enabled microgrids. This study fills this gap by conducting a systematic bibliometric and thematic analysis of 310 articles obtained from Web of Science (2013-2024). By combining bibliometric mapping with thematic synthesis, the research identifies dominant and emerging ML techniques-ranging from reinforcement learning to federated learning-and evaluates their roles in microgrid management. The study highlights underexplored areas, including decentralized coordination, encouraging prosumer participation, understanding user behavior, safeguarding cybersecurity, improving real-time optimization, and the effective integration and adaptation of V2X technology within microgrid ecosystems. These gaps emphasize the need for interdisciplinary research and policy frameworks to address the social dimensions of future energy systems. Beyond a comprehensive overview, this paper proposes a research roadmap integrating technical, social, and policy dimensions. It offers actionable guidance for researchers, stakeholders aiming to unlock the potential of intelligent, human-centered, and socially inclusive energy ecosystems. Furthermore, the findings align with UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDG 7, 11, and 13), while also creating a positive impact on humanity by supporting the well-being of both society and the planet. Ultimately, this reinforces the indispensable role of ML in advancing the zero-carbon transition.
Citation - WoS: 2
Citation - Scopus: 3
Prediction of Biomechanical Properties of Ex Vivo Human Femoral Cortical Bone Using Raman Spectroscopy and Machine Learning Algorithms
(Elsevier, 2025) Unal, Mustafa; Unlu, Ramazan; Uppuganti, Sasidhar; Nyman, Jeffry S.
This study applied Raman spectroscopy (RS) to ex vivo human cadaveric femoral mid-diaphysis cortical bone specimens (n = 118 donors; age range 21-101 years) to predict fracture toughness properties via machine learning (ML) models. Spectral features, together with demographic variables (age, sex) and structural parameters (cortical porosity, volumetric bone mineral density), were fed into support vector regression (SVR), extreme tree regression (ETR), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and ensemble models to predict fracture-toughness metrics such as crack-initiation toughness (Kinit) and energy-to-fracture (J-integral). Feature selection was based on Raman-derived mineral and organic matrix parameters, such as nu 1Phosphate (PO4)/CH2-wag, nu 1PO4/ Amide I, and others, to capture the complex composition of bone. Our results indicate that ensemble models consistently outperformed individual models, with the best performance for crack initiation toughness (Kinit) prediction being achieved using the ensemble approach. This yielded a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.623, root-mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.320, mean absolute error (MAE) of 1.015, and mean percentage absolute error (MAPE) of 0.134. For prediction of the overall energy to propagate a crack (J-integral), the XGB model achieved an R2 of 0.737, RMSE of 2.634, MAE of 2.283, and MAPE of 0.240. This study highlights the importance of incorporating mineral quality properties (MP) and organic matrix properties (OMP) for enhanced prediction accuracy. This work represents the first-ever study combining Raman spectroscopy with other clinical and structural features to predict fracture toughness of human cortical bone, demonstrating the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) and ML in advancing bone research. Future studies could focus on larger datasets and more advanced modeling techniques to further improve predictive capabilities.
Citation - WoS: 1
Citation - Scopus: 1
Strategic Investment in BIST100: A Machine Learning Approach Using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation Clustering
(Univ Cincinnati industrial Engineering, 2025) Nalici, Mehmet Eren; Soylemez, Ismet; Unlu, Ramazan
This study employs the Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) clustering method to enhance investor decision-making on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST100) by identifying companies exhibiting analogous stock movements. The data from 81 BIST100 companies over a three-year period has been analyzed, with a focus on risk minimization and strategic investment. The SAX method, integrated with a dendrogram, categorizes stocks into sector-based and non-sector-based clusters, providing insights for portfolio optimization. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the method in identifying relevant stock patterns across sectors, aiding in more informed investment decisions. This approach highlights the need for considering multiple factors in investment strategies, offering a new perspective on stock market analysis with advanced clustering techniques.