Browsing by Author "Namli, Ersin"

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Comparative Analysis of Material Footprints in Electricity Generation of Deep Learning-Based Prediction Model and Energy Development Scenarios
(SAGE Publications Ltd, 2026) Celik, Yasin; Unlu, Ramazan; Algorabi, Omer; Kocakaya, Mustafa Nabi; Aktog, Mehmet Arif; Namli, Ersin
Escalating global production and consumption are driving rapid growth in energy demand, increasing pressure on finite natural resources. In response, this study proposes a data-driven framework that integrates deep learning-based electricity demand forecasting with economy-wide input-output material footprint analysis to support long-term energy planning and policymaking. The innovative aspect of this framework is its ability to jointly assess future electricity generation and related material requirements within a single analytical structure. A comparative analysis is conducted for Türkiye, Germany, and Spain, evaluating the material footprint of electricity generation across renewable and fossil-based energy sources under business-as-usual (BAU) and alternative energy development scenarios. The forecasting models demonstrate strong predictive performance, achieving Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 1.39% for Türkiye, 4.39% for Germany, and 3.90% for Spain, significantly outperforming conventional statistical methods. Scenario-based results indicate that sustainability-oriented pathways (ST and GCA) can reduce material requirements by approximately 20-30% compared to the BAU scenario, particularly for metal-intensive inputs such as iron and refined oil. The findings underscore the importance of integrating material footprint considerations into energy transition strategies and provide practical insights for policymakers seeking to balance energy security with resource sustainability. The study highlights the value of integrated analytical approaches in supporting more resilient and resource-efficient energy systems.
Citation - WoS: 5
Citation - Scopus: 13
Forecasting of the Unemployment Rate in Turkey: Comparison of the Machine Learning Models
(MDPI, 2024) Guler, Mehmet; Kabakci, Aysil; Koc, Omer; Eraslan, Ersin; Derin, K. Hakan; Guler, Mustafa; Namli, Ersin
Unemployment is the most important problem that countries need to solve in their economic development plans. The uncontrolled growth and unpredictability of unemployment are some of the biggest obstacles to economic development. Considering the benefits of technology to human life, the use of artificial intelligence is extremely important for a stable economic policy. This study aims to use machine learning methods to forecast unemployment rates in Turkey on a monthly basis. For this purpose, two different models are created. In the first model, monthly unemployment data obtained from TURKSTAT for the period between 2005 and 2023 are trained with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms. The second model, which includes additional economic parameters such as inflation, exchange rate, and labor force data, is modeled with the XGBoost algorithm in addition to ANN and SVM models. The forecasting performance of both models is evaluated using various performance metrics such as Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The findings of the study show how successful artificial intelligence methods are in forecasting economic developments and that these methods can be used in macroeconomic studies. They also highlight the effects of economic parameters such as exchange rates, inflation, and labor force on unemployment and reveal the potential of these methods to support economic decisions. As a result, this study shows that modeling and forecasting different parameter values during periods of economic uncertainty are possible with artificial intelligence technology.